Determinasi Ekonomi Utama dalam Penurunan Kemiskinan: Studi Panel 11 Tahun di Indonesia

Abstract

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the determinants of poverty across 33 provinces in Indonesia from 2013 to 2023 by employing a quantitative causal-comparative approach using panel data. The analysis focuses on the influence of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), Provincial Minimum Wage (PMW), Domestic Investment (DI), and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) on poverty levels. The results of the Chow and Hausman tests indicate that the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) is the most appropriate specification for capturing cross-regional heterogeneity. The estimation results show that GRDP has a significant negative effect on poverty, reflecting the inclusive role of economic growth in improving regional welfare. MSMEs exhibit a significant positive coefficient, suggesting that the expansion of low-productivity informal MSMEs does not necessarily reduce poverty. In contrast, Domestic Investment and Provincial Minimum Wage have no significant impact on poverty levels. Overall, the findings highlight that regional economic performance and MSME dynamics play a more substantial role in poverty reduction compared to investment flows and wage regulations.

Keywords : Indonesia, Poverty, and Panel Data